UAE fuel prices are expected to remain broadly stable in May, even as global oil prices have climbed back above $100 per barrel in recent days. Brent crude for June delivery is trading around $107.60 per barrel, while the July contract stands near $101.38, reflecting renewed upward pressure in global energy markets.
Despite the rebound, the increase is unlikely to significantly impact May retail fuel prices, as the UAE’s monthly pricing system is based on the average crude price from the previous month.
April fuel rates reflected the sharp rise in oil prices seen in March. May prices, however, will be linked to April’s average levels, which were lower than current market prices.
As a result, petrol prices are expected to remain stable or edge slightly lower, while diesel is likely to stay elevated due to tighter supply conditions globally.
Oil markets have been supported by ongoing supply concerns, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route for global energy flows. Disruptions and geopolitical tensions in the region have continued to influence price movements.
At the same time, partial crude exports and alternative supply channels have helped prevent a sharper supply shock, limiting further price spikes.
Historically, UAE fuel prices tend to stabilise after sharp increases, with adjustments spread over subsequent months rather than immediate reversals.
Analysts expect May to reflect this pattern, with limited changes for motorists, while any sustained rise in crude prices is more likely to influence fuel rates in June.
The direction of prices in the coming weeks will depend on global oil stability, including developments in supply routes, geopolitical negotiations and crude price trends above the $100 mark.
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