UAE motorists could see another rise in petrol and diesel prices in October as Brent crude remains above $100 a barrel and global fuel markets face continued supply uncertainty.
Brent rose 2.3% to $101.52 a barrel on Wednesday, after briefly falling below $99. The benchmark remains around 41% above its late-February level, keeping pressure on the UAE's monthly fuel-price review.
September Prices Already Higher
The UAE's current September rates are Dh3.80 for Super 98, Dh3.69 for Special 95, Dh3.61 for E-Plus 91 and Dh4.30 for diesel.
Diesel remains below its 2026 peak of Dh4.69, while Super 98 previously reached Dh3.95, Special 95 Dh3.83 and E-Plus 91 Dh3.76.
Oil Supply Remains the Key Factor
The biggest influence on October prices will be the average oil and refined-fuel prices recorded during September.
Brent briefly approached $110 a barrel earlier this month as Middle East supply concerns intensified. Prices have since eased, but remain elevated.
Saudi Arabia is trying to restore crude flows through its East-West pipeline and has arranged additional shipments through ship-to-ship transfers near Oman's Sohar port. Around 60 million barrels are expected to move through such transfers during September and October, potentially easing supply pressure.
Diesel Faces Extra Pressure
The diesel market is particularly tight, with global inventories at low levels.
Reuters has reported that the global diesel shortage could continue into 2027, adding pressure to refined-fuel prices even if crude prices stabilise.
This could make diesel more vulnerable to another increase in October.
How Much Could Prices Change?
The exact October rates cannot yet be known, but current market conditions point to upward pressure.
A 20-fils-per-litre increase would take Super 98 to Dh4.00, Special 95 to Dh3.89 and E-Plus 91 to Dh3.81.
For drivers, every 10 fils added per litre would increase the cost of a 60-litre fill by Dh6 and an 80-litre fill by Dh8. A 20-fils increase would double those amounts.
Final Week of September Matters
Oil prices during the last days of September will be crucial. Continued trading around or above $100 could support higher October fuel rates, while a significant decline in crude prices could ease pressure.
Developments around the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi oil exports and regional tensions will also remain important.
The UAE Fuel Price Committee is expected to announce October's official rates at the end of September, with the new prices taking effect on October 1.
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