Oil Markets Split as Geopolitical Tensions Deepen; Murban Slides 11%, Brent Holds Above $104

The most dramatic movement came from Murban crude, the UAE benchmark, which plunged 11.31% to $119.88, marking the steepest decline among major grades. The drop highlights uneven demand patterns and shifting trade flows in response to regional instability.

Meanwhile, Russia’s Urals crude surged over 9% to $89.12, as buyers increasingly turned to discounted barrels amid rising global prices. The OPEC basket also edged higher to $145.24, while India’s import basket climbed sharply to $157.04, reflecting mounting cost pressures for major importers.

Fragmented Market Signals Supply Stress

The contrasting price movements underline a market that is no longer moving in unison. Analysts point to disruptions in the Middle East—particularly around the Strait of Hormuz—as a key driver of volatility.

Shipping constraints, transit risks, and tensions involving Iran have reshaped supply chains, creating regional price premiums and dislocations. As a result, some crude grades are surging while others are retreating, depending on accessibility and buyer preference.

India Holds Fuel Prices Despite Rising Costs

Despite the surge in import costs, India has maintained stable retail fuel prices. While this move shields consumers from immediate price shocks, it is placing increasing pressure on refiners and oil marketing companies as margins tighten.

Volatility Likely to Persist

Market participants warn that the current divergence could continue until geopolitical tensions ease. With supply routes under strain and demand shifting toward discounted or more accessible barrels, oil is increasingly trading as a collection of regional markets rather than a single global benchmark.