Research published in The Lancet medical journal has revealed that the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of the Israel-Hamas conflict is significantly higher than previously reported by Gaza’s health ministry. The study estimates that between 55,298 and 78,525 individuals lost their lives due to traumatic injuries by June 30, 2024, which is approximately 40% higher than the ministry’s recorded death toll of 37,877 up to that point.
The research used data from Gaza’s health ministry, an online survey, and obituaries posted on social media platforms, employing a statistical method known as “capture-recapture” to estimate the death toll. This method, which has been used in past conflicts worldwide, helped identify overlaps in the three data sources to produce a more accurate estimate.
The researchers’ best estimate of 64,260 deaths would mean the health ministry had underreported the number of fatalities by 41%. These deaths, which account for 2.9% of Gaza's pre-war population, represent a profound humanitarian toll, with 59% of the victims being women, children, and the elderly.
The study did not include deaths from indirect causes such as a lack of healthcare, food, or sanitation, nor did it account for the 10,000 missing Gazans believed to be buried under rubble. The actual toll could therefore be even higher.
Despite some criticisms regarding the uncertainty inherent in estimating death tolls from incomplete data, experts have praised the study for its methodological rigor and its significant contribution to understanding the scale of the human cost of the war.
