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Norway's Crude Oil Production Exceeds Forecasts in May Despite Monthly Decline

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Norway's offshore oil industry delivered stronger-than-expected production in May, with crude output surpassing official government forecasts even as production eased from April's exceptionally high levels, according to preliminary data released by the Norwegian Offshore Directorate (NOD).

The country's crude oil production averaged 1.722 million barrels per day (bpd) in May, compared with 1.952 million bpd in April. Despite the month-on-month decline, output was 7.2% above the government's forecast of 1.607 million bpd, highlighting continued resilience in Norway's offshore petroleum sector.

Total petroleum production, including crude oil, condensate, natural gas liquids, and natural gas, reached 3.82 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, exceeding official projections by 2.9%. The decline from April's overall output was primarily attributed to scheduled maintenance and operational work at several offshore installations.

Natural gas production averaged 303 million cubic metres per day, broadly matching official estimates while remaining lower than April's production levels.

Norway has emerged as Europe's largest supplier of natural gas following the sharp reduction in Russian energy exports after the outbreak of the Ukraine conflict. Stable production from Norwegian offshore fields has played a significant role in supporting European energy security and reducing supply concerns across the region.

The latest production figures come as global energy markets continue to monitor geopolitical developments in the Middle East. Tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil shipping route, have kept traders cautious despite recent diplomatic efforts aimed at easing regional tensions.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that while global oil demand growth is expected to moderate this year, geopolitical risks continue to pose uncertainty for international energy markets. Shipping disruptions and higher transport insurance costs have also contributed to continued volatility in crude prices.

Norway's petroleum sector has maintained solid momentum throughout 2026, with year-to-date production running approximately 4% higher than during the same period last year. The consistent performance further strengthens the country's position as one of Europe's most reliable energy producers.

Industry analysts expect Norway's oil and gas production to remain stable in the near term, although output is projected to gradually decline later this decade as several mature offshore fields reach the later stages of production and investment increasingly shifts toward smaller tie-back developments.

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