Global oil markets witnessed sharp volatility on Thursday, with benchmark crude prices climbing significantly following fresh geopolitical developments linked to the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict. Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) both posted notable gains, rising nearly 5% in early trading. WTI crude advanced to $103.69, marking an increase of $3.57, while Brent climbed to $105.53, up by $4.37. In contrast, Murban crude, a key Middle Eastern benchmark, moved in the opposite direction, slipping to $103.63 after losing nearly 3%.
The divergence among crude benchmarks reflects the complex dynamics shaping the global oil market. While international benchmarks such as Brent and WTI continue to be supported by heightened geopolitical risks and uncertainty over supply disruptions, regional grades like Murban appear to be facing pressure from shifting supply flows and adjustments in Gulf market premiums.
The latest price movement follows remarks by former U.S. President Donald Trump, who addressed the nation on Wednesday night regarding the ongoing military campaign against Iran. Describing the operation as a success, Trump signaled intensified military action in the coming weeks, while also hinting at a possible conclusion to the conflict in the near term.
His mixed messaging — combining aggressive military intent with suggestions of a potential wind-down — has contributed to market uncertainty. Traders remain cautious as conflicting signals complicate expectations around the duration and intensity of the conflict.
Oil prices have been highly sensitive to developments in the region, particularly due to concerns surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil transit chokepoint. Any disruption in this corridor could significantly impact global supply, pushing prices higher.
The market has already experienced extreme swings in recent weeks. In March, Brent crude recorded one of its strongest rallies in decades, surging by over 60% at its peak amid fears of prolonged instability in the Middle East. Prices briefly crossed the $115 mark before retreating on expectations of a potential de-escalation.
However, renewed uncertainty following the latest political and military developments has once again lifted sentiment in favor of higher prices for global benchmarks. At the same time, regional market adjustments continue to weigh on specific grades such as Murban, highlighting the uneven impact of the conflict across oil segments.
As geopolitical tensions persist and clarity around the conflict remains limited, analysts expect oil markets to remain volatile in the near term, with prices likely to respond sharply to any new signals on supply risks or diplomatic progress.
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