The US Federal Reserve is widely expected to deliver another interest rate cut next week, and the UAE Central Bank is preparing to follow. Market pricing shows nearly a 90% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the Fed’s December 10 meeting, with the UAE likely to mirror the move due to the dirham’s peg to the US dollar.
A matching cut in the UAE would bring down borrowing costs for mortgages, personal loans and variable-rate credit cards. It would also make new credit more accessible for consumers and businesses as the year closes.
Expectations for a cut strengthened after softer-than-expected US labour indicators and a clear slowdown in business activity. Economists now expect interest rates to move toward the 3.5%–3.75% range sooner than previously forecast.
Bank forecasts shift
Bank of America, which earlier predicted no action in December, now expects a quarter-point cut, citing weaker job data and remarks from policymakers hinting at earlier easing. The bank also sees two more cuts in June and July 2026, bringing rates down to 3%–3.25%.
Speculation is also increasing around future leadership at the Fed. Reports suggest White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett is a frontrunner for the chairmanship, raising questions about how policy could shift in 2026.
Data reinforces pressure on the Fed
Several U.S. indicators have supported expectations for a cut. Private employers cut 32,000 jobs in November, reversing economists’ expectations for gains. Surveys across manufacturing and services also reported weaker confidence.
The dollar has slipped in recent days as traders position for lower rates. Daniela Sabin Hathorn of Capital.com said the currency’s decline reflects growing confidence that the Fed will ease next week.
Layoff plans also highlight the strain. Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported 71,321 job-cut announcements in November, half of October’s total, but still the highest November figure in three years.
What investors in the UAE are watching
The November US jobs report will not be released before the Fed meets, leaving policymakers without a full labour update. Payroll data for October and November will instead be published on December 16.
Most major brokerages still expect a 25-basis-point cut next week, though a few, including Morgan Stanley and Standard Chartered, believe the Fed may hold steady. CME’s FedWatch tool shows markets firmly tilted toward a reduction.
For UAE residents, a cut would mean lower loan instalments but weaker returns on savings accounts and fixed deposits. Cheaper borrowing often stimulates property and equity activity as financing costs fall and developers gain easier access to credit.
With both the US and UAE preparing for next week’s decisions, the final rate cut of 2025 is set to influence borrowing, saving and investment conditions across both economies as the year draws to a close.
