UAE Petrol Price Prediction: Will Costs Rise in April?

In March, Super 98 petrol was priced at Dh2.73 per litre, slightly down from Dh2.74 in February but higher than Dh2.61 in January. Meanwhile, Special 95 petrol saw a minor dip to Dh2.61 per litre in March, compared to Dh2.63 last month and Dh2.50 in January.

The price of E-Plus 91 petrol stood at Dh2.54 per litre, marginally lower than Dh2.55 in February, yet up from Dh2.43 in January. Diesel, on the other hand, was set at Dh2.77 per litre—a decrease from Dh2.82 in February but higher than Dh2.68 in January.

Since the UAE deregulated fuel prices in 2015, monthly adjustments have been in line with global oil price trends. With the next revision expected soon, many are wondering: Will fuel prices rise in April?

What Is Driving April’s Fuel Prices?

Oil markets have seen a steady recovery, largely influenced by global geopolitical developments. One of the key factors is US President Donald Trump’s plan to impose 25% tariffs on nations purchasing Venezuelan crude, a move that could disrupt supply chains for refineries in China, India, and parts of Europe.

As a result, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude prices have surged for a fifth consecutive session, nearing $70 per barrel, a level last seen at the start of the month. However, crude prices retreated slightly on Tuesday after failing to hold above the 100-day moving average of $69.67.

Venezuela is a major supplier of heavy, sour crude, which is primarily used for diesel and fuel oil production. The increasing demand for these heavy barrels has led to an unusual premium over Brent crude, signaling tight supplies in the market.

Macro Trends Suggest Upward Pressure on UAE Fuel Prices

Several macroeconomic factors could contribute to a possible increase in UAE fuel prices for April:

• Higher US crude prices following market recovery.

• Tighter supply of heavy crude used for diesel and fuel oil.

• US trade tariffs on Venezuelan crude buyers, which could further strain global oil supplies.

• Reduced volatility in global markets, easing downward pressure on crude.

Given these dynamics, UAE fuel prices—adjusted monthly based on international oil movements—are likely to either rise or remain stable, rather than decline in April. The official pricing announcement in the coming days will provide clarity on how these global trends will impact local fuel rates.