Dubai — As gold holds steady at $3,336 an ounce, UAE and Gulf investors are closely watching price action, with many identifying $3,250/oz as a key level to build or expand their positions.
Trading patterns from regional platforms show that while experienced investors are holding firm, new entrants remain cautious, waiting for any dip toward the lower $3,200 range.
Tariff Talks Could Spark Gold Surge
The next big trigger? The July 9 tariff deadline set by U.S. President Donald Trump. If no deal is reached with major trade partners, the resulting economic uncertainty could drive gold even higher, and fast.
Despite the Israel-Iran ceasefire, expectations for a sustained pullback in gold have not materialized. Instead, gold has rebounded from its brief dip and remained above the $3,300 mark since early July.
“2025 is shaping up to be a year of tactical accumulation between $3,100 and $3,500,” said a senior analyst at IG, highlighting that 72% of current traders still maintain long positions.
$4,000 or $2,500? Wall Street Is Divided
Forecasts for gold's direction diverge sharply:
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JPMorgan predicts a 20% rally to $4,000, citing stagflation, geopolitical risk, and de-dollarization as key drivers.
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Citi, however, foresees a sharp correction to $2,500, reflecting skepticism over long-term demand and central bank behavior.
“This isn’t a hedge, it’s a pivot,” said Stephen Innes, Managing Partner at SPI Asset Management. “Gold offers autonomy in a world of shifting monetary power.”
Electric Demand and Tactical Buying
With central banks, institutional buyers, and retail traders reportedly driving demand for up to 2,800 tonnes globally, analysts see limited downside, unless economic conditions stabilize unexpectedly.
Dubai gold rates also remain elevated at AED 371.75 per gram, with limited discounts offered, even for bulk buyers. While price-sensitive investors wait for corrections, many acknowledge that any re-entry below $3,300 could prove wise if the $4,000 target materializes in 2026.
“Investors are not reacting impulsively, they’re waiting for strategic entry points, and $3,250 appears to be that level for many,” the IG analyst added.
