Dubai: UAE gold prices are under renewed pressure this week, with signs pointing to a potential drop to the Dh360 per gram level, contingent on a geopolitical trigger from Washington.
With US President Donald Trump’s July 9 trade deal deadline looming, international markets are closely watching how negotiations unfold with key global trading partners. If trade deals materialize, analysts expect a dip in gold prices globally, and the UAE may follow suit.
“If the US says a deal has been struck, the Dubai gold price could come down to Dh365 a gram, maybe even lower,” said a leading Dubai gold retailer.
Volatility Hinges on US Tariff Moves
Earlier this year, gold surged past $3,500 per ounce after the US imposed steep trade tariffs. That volatility created a rally across bullion markets, pushing UAE prices consistently above Dh350 per gram for 22-karat gold. But a reversal may now be underway.
President Trump has warned of a 10% additional tariff on countries aligning with the BRICS bloc, further heightening market sensitivity.
“The main reasons gold’s been sticking to Dh350-plus levels are uncertainty about the US economy and tariff concerns,” said another market source. “If those ease, we expect at least a Dh10 drop.”
Consumer Sentiment Tied to Psychological Thresholds
Jewellery retailers across Dubai report a slowdown in weekend sales, with prices hovering at Dh372.25 per gram. Even ongoing Dubai Summer Surprises (DSS) raffles and promotional campaigns failed to reignite strong demand.
“Shoppers remember getting Dh365 a gram the weekend before,” a retailer noted. “The Dh370+ price point is a mental block.”
If Trump’s negotiations result in a resolution, it could be the catalyst the local jewellery market needs, both in terms of pricing and sentiment.
Outlook: Could Dh360 Be the New Normal?
Market sources suggest that if trade negotiations lead to eased tariffs, Dubai gold could fall to Dh360 or below. Conversely, a collapse in talks might drive prices higher again, extending volatility into the third quarter.
All eyes now turn to Washington. Until then, UAE shoppers may choose to wait, hoping for a dip before restocking gold ahead of the festive season.
