Will UAE Gold Prices Fall If Trump Strikes Trade Deals?

By Faizal

07 Jul 2025

Will UAE Gold Prices Fall If Trump Strikes Trade Deals?

Dubai: UAE gold prices are under renewed pressure this week, with signs pointing to a potential drop to the Dh360 per gram level, contingent on a geopolitical trigger from Washington.

With US President Donald Trump’s July 9 trade deal deadline looming, international markets are closely watching how negotiations unfold with key global trading partners. If trade deals materialize, analysts expect a dip in gold prices globally, and the UAE may follow suit.

“If the US says a deal has been struck, the Dubai gold price could come down to Dh365 a gram, maybe even lower,” said a leading Dubai gold retailer.

Volatility Hinges on US Tariff Moves

Earlier this year, gold surged past $3,500 per ounce after the US imposed steep trade tariffs. That volatility created a rally across bullion markets, pushing UAE prices consistently above Dh350 per gram for 22-karat gold. But a reversal may now be underway.

President Trump has warned of a 10% additional tariff on countries aligning with the BRICS bloc, further heightening market sensitivity.

“The main reasons gold’s been sticking to Dh350-plus levels are uncertainty about the US economy and tariff concerns,” said another market source. “If those ease, we expect at least a Dh10 drop.”

Consumer Sentiment Tied to Psychological Thresholds

Jewellery retailers across Dubai report a slowdown in weekend sales, with prices hovering at Dh372.25 per gram. Even ongoing Dubai Summer Surprises (DSS) raffles and promotional campaigns failed to reignite strong demand.

“Shoppers remember getting Dh365 a gram the weekend before,” a retailer noted. “The Dh370+ price point is a mental block.”

If Trump’s negotiations result in a resolution, it could be the catalyst the local jewellery market needs, both in terms of pricing and sentiment.

Outlook: Could Dh360 Be the New Normal?

Market sources suggest that if trade negotiations lead to eased tariffs, Dubai gold could fall to Dh360 or below. Conversely, a collapse in talks might drive prices higher again, extending volatility into the third quarter.

All eyes now turn to Washington. Until then, UAE shoppers may choose to wait, hoping for a dip before restocking gold ahead of the festive season.

Written by

Faizal

Faizal is an experienced content creator and writer with a strong focus on business trends, economic developments, and emerging opportunities across the Gulf region. His work reflects a keen understanding of evolving markets, industry dynamics, and the factors shaping the region’s business landscape. With a research-driven approach, Faizal transforms complex market developments into clear, informative, and actionable insights for professionals, entrepreneurs, and business leaders. His content aims to provide valuable perspectives on key economic trends and developments influencing businesses across the Gulf.