Tesla shares surged on Thursday after the company posted record-breaking third-quarter deliveries, beating Wall Street expectations and fueling a rally that has lifted the stock more than 30% in September alone.
The stock jumped as much as 5% in early trading to reach $475 before easing back to $455.19 by mid-morning. Despite the pullback, Tesla is still up nearly 40% since the start of last month, pushing its market capitalization above $1.5 trillion and briefly lifting Elon Musk’s net worth past the $500 billion mark.
The electric carmaker delivered 497,099 vehicles in the third quarter, far exceeding forecasts of around 448,000. Analysts attribute the surge to a rush of U.S. buyers securing vehicles before a $7,500 federal EV tax credit expired on September 30. Production, however, slipped 4.8% year-on-year to 447,450 vehicles, hinting at possible inventory pressure.
Tesla’s energy storage business also reported strong growth, deploying a record 12.5 GWh of products such as Megapack batteries, up 81% from a year ago. The segment, which brought in $5.5 billion in the first half of the year, is increasingly seen as a key growth driver as demand rises for AI data centers and grid-scale projects.
Investor sentiment has also been boosted by Musk’s personal $1 billion share purchase and growing confidence in Tesla’s long-term focus on AI, robotics, and autonomous driving. Analysts like Wedbush’s Dan Ives now see the stock climbing toward $600, projecting a path to a $2–3 trillion valuation within the next two years.
Still, concerns remain that the delivery spike may be temporary. Analysts warn of a potential pullback in the fourth quarter without the tax credit boost, alongside intensifying competition from Chinese EV makers. Key upcoming catalysts include Tesla’s Robotaxi unveiling on October 10 and its Q3 earnings report on October 22.
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