Oil prices edged lower on Monday following their steepest weekly decline since late June, as markets awaited a high-stakes meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday. The talks are expected to focus on ending the war in Ukraine, potentially reshaping global oil supply dynamics.
Brent crude traded near $66 a barrel after a 4.4% drop last week, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) remained just above $63. Prices have already fallen more than 10% this year, pressured by OPEC+ ramping up output faster than planned and concerns that slowing global growth could curb demand.
While Trump has so far avoided imposing additional sanctions or tariffs on Russian energy buyers, a potential ceasefire deal could ease restrictions on Moscow’s exports, adding to forecasts of a supply glut later this year.
Analysts warn that crafting an agreement acceptable to Ukraine and European allies will be challenging. “If the conflict is resolved, Brent could dip below $65, with risks of sub-$60 by year-end,” said Robert Rennie, head of commodity and carbon research at Westpac.
Market watchers will look for fresh supply-demand signals this week from the OPEC monthly market report (due Tuesday), the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s outlook, and the International Energy Agency’s report on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, Ukraine claimed a successful drone strike Sunday on a major Russian refinery in Saratov, marking the latest in a string of attacks targeting Moscow’s energy infrastructure.
