Apple is on track to ship more smartphones than Samsung this year, marking a major shift in an industry long dominated by the South Korean tech giant. According to Counterpoint Research, Apple is expected to ship around 243 million iPhones in 2025, slightly ahead of Samsung’s 235 million units.
If the forecast holds, this will be the first time since 2010 that Apple finishes the year as the world’s top smartphone maker by shipments. Counterpoint estimates Apple’s market share at 19.4%, compared with Samsung’s 18.7%.
The strong performance is largely driven by the iPhone 17 lineup, which launched in September. Counterpoint said the series had an exceptional holiday-season start. In the U.S., early sales for the iPhone 17 models, including the new iPhone Air, were 12% higher than the previous generation. In China, one of Apple’s most crucial markets, sales were 18% higher during the first four weeks.
Analysts say the timing is also favorable. Many consumers who bought smartphones during the COVID-19 surge are now reaching the end of their upgrade cycle, helping lift demand for premium devices.
Samsung, meanwhile, continues to face pressure from fast-growing Chinese brands in the mid-range segment, making it harder to regain momentum.
Counterpoint also expects Apple to stay ahead for several more years. The research firm noted that 358 million used iPhones were sold between 2023 and mid-2025, creating a large base of future upgraders. Apple has also benefited from the U.S.–China trade truce, stable supply chains, and strong consumer demand in emerging markets.
Looking ahead, Apple is expected to expand its lineup further with the iPhone 17e and its first foldable iPhone, along with a major design overhaul planned for 2027. Analysts believe these moves, combined with improvements to Siri and deeper ecosystem integration, will help Apple maintain its lead through the end of the decade.
