Dubai – Indian expats in the UAE and Saudi Arabia are moving quickly to take advantage of the Indian rupee’s sharp drop against the dollar, triggering a wave of AED-INR remittances since Thursday.
The rupee has weakened to nearly 23.5 against the dirham, the lowest it’s been since early April. At the start of this week, the INR was trading at 23.34.
Historically, June remittances tend to dip due to higher seasonal expenses among Indian expats, such as airline tickets for summer travel and spending back home. However, this week’s currency slide has bucked that trend.
"Last Thursday (June 19) was one of the best in recent weeks for AED-INR remittances,” said a senior official at a leading currency exchange house. “There was some concern yesterday when the rupee strengthened slightly to 23.46, but the demand continues.”
Rather than waiting for further weakening of the INR, many NRIs are opting to transfer funds now, anticipating that current levels may not last.
“Wherever spare funds are available, Indian expats in the UAE and Gulf have been sending money home since Thursday,” added the official. “If the exchange rate stays the same, or drops further by July, it's a win-win for them.”
What’s Driving Remittance Decisions Now?
Currency specialists believe the dollar’s weakening, despite heightened geopolitical tensions such as the Israel-Iran conflict, is also contributing to the trend. Traditionally a safe haven during crises, the dollar has not rallied this time, with gold now playing that role.
The coming days, particularly through Monday, are expected to see continued high remittance volumes.
But should NRIs wait for better rates next week? “Not likely,” say industry watchers, citing multiple economic and geopolitical factors.
What Lies Ahead for the Rupee?
Experts are closely monitoring developments that could influence the INR’s direction in the coming months:
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Revival in FII inflows, following the US withdrawal of reciprocal tariffs and progress in bilateral trade deals.
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A boost in India’s defense production, reducing import reliance and helping the trade and current account deficit.
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Positive sentiment around the India-UK and US-India trade agreements.
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Inflation easing below the Reserve Bank of India’s 4% target, possibly paving the way for further rate cuts.
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RBI interventions aimed at curbing excessive currency volatility.
For now, Indian expats aren’t waiting. The INR’s slip has offered a golden window to remit, and many are pressing 'send' while the rate is in their favor.
