Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 US presidential election has stirred discussions on its potential impact in the Middle East. Trump’s win over Kamala Harris, defying close pre-election forecasts, is attributed to his economic messaging, conservative policies, and charismatic public persona that resonated with key voter bases. Analysts in the UAE, such as Dr. Kristian Alexander from the Rabdan Security and Defence Institute, emphasize that Trump’s confrontational yet authentic approach to politics has secured loyal support, contrasting with traditional Washington practices.
Dr. Alexander pointed out that Trump’s economic stance, particularly his focus on tariffs to protect American jobs and limit reliance on foreign manufacturing, continues to resonate with voters concerned about economic security. “The appeal lies in Trump’s ability to connect these economic ideas with a sense of national pride,” Alexander noted, highlighting his strong influence in pivotal states.
Trump’s re-election signals a return to his hardline policies in the Middle East, marked by transactional alliances and an emphasis on deterrence. During his previous term, Trump strengthened relationships with allies such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, implementing sanctions and strategic measures to counterbalance Iran’s influence. Analysts expect a resurgence of his “maximum pressure” strategy on Iran, which may include reinforced sanctions and diplomatic measures.
For the UAE, Trump's pragmatic approach could mean enhanced economic cooperation, particularly in defense, energy, and technology sectors. The UAE’s focus on innovation and security aligns with Trump’s vision for fostering partnerships that bolster regional stability and growth. Dr. N. Janardhan from the Anwar Gargash Diplomatic Academy notes that Trump’s decisive, albeit disruptive, style may benefit the UAE but could pose challenges to broader geopolitical stability.
While Trump's policies are likely to strengthen economic ties with allies, they may also introduce a degree of unpredictability on issues such as the Russia-Ukraine war and Middle Eastern conflicts, shaping the region’s political landscape in significant ways.
